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Publisher's Note

Family developments have precluded my time at the keyboard this past month. That may not be a bad thing after you read the fascinating articles I have gather for this issue. I have an overview especially good for those of you new to dice sets and setting dice by Gary Lorig.

I am very excited to have two excellent articles that I have permission to publish about the game of dice. I have a feeling that once you understand the information digested from the D.C. Wizard and Mike from Hawaii, you will have a greater understanding for the game of dice and perhaps other games of chance. Because of the length of this newsletter, I am going to make you wait for "On The Coat Tales of a Gambler", the adventures of Sailor and Scarpone.

So, be on the edge of your seat for the October issue of Playing 4 Keeps. I promise something very different and to my knowledge, it has never been presented for the game of craps. With the help of Mike from Hawaii, I plan to share the math behind the metaphysics and the quantum physics as I now understand how to better explained  "perception" in the game. You will not want to miss the October issue. The Who-Doo-Voo rides with the numbers. A study of over 600,000 actual random rolls and you will see it here! As Brian Little, an Irishman I once knew, liked to say, "Head for the Gap!"

Find out about the Gap, in next month's issue of Playing 4 Keeps. Of course Brian was a bit of a drinker and the Gap he headed for was the one between the hedge rows on the narrow Irish lanes.

See you at the tables Playing 4 Keeps™!

Michael Vernon

Author and Gaming Instructor

 

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Can You Have Your 6 and 8 it Too?

 

Some new place-betting systems for the 6 and 8? It was raining here. I must have been bored. So, this weekend I decided to take another look at the collection of place-betting systems that I have in my library.  Then, I compared these systems to some of the place-betting systems that have been written about here. I discovered nothing new. As expected, I found mostly run of the mill "up and pull" systems that have sustained casino profits for years.

 

With place betting, “winning” more bets than pass-line bettors comes at the cost of greater risk and larger losses. The “fuzzy math” that I’ve seen to support 6/8 systems misses this unpleasant fact.  Yes, if one bets both the six and eight, chances are that either the six or the eight will hit before a seven is rolled. However, when the seven does roll, (and it will roll on average once in every six rolls no matter how many bets are on the table), the player who places both the six and eight is going to lose both bets (or 2 units).  Likewise, the player, placing all six numbers is going to lose 6 units to the seven out while the largest possible win is limited to 1.8 (9 to 5 which is paid when hitting either the four or ten).  In my opinion, it is much better to risk (and to lose) 1 unit rather than to risk 2 or more units.  And, if he confines himself to betting the pass line and the pass line alone, 1 unit is the most that the pass-line better will ever lose on one roll of the dice.

 

From time to time, I hear place bettors suggest that their increasing the number of bets helps overcome the nasty seven. For example, place both the 6 and the 8 … Ten ways to win and 6 ways to lose…Sounds good to a novice player, I am sure…However, here is the skinny.  Placing more than one number increases both the chance of winning a little and of losing a lot.  No place-betting system can rectify this. 

 

Another serious problem with place betting is that when the place bet does win, it pays less than the true mathematical odds. (In the case of the 6 and 8, the pay-out is 7/6 instead of 6/5). Bad player odds and increased player risk explain why the casinos best customers are place bettors. Hits on the six or eight, are only going to pay about 1.17 units (7 to 6), while a hit on the seven is going to cost 2 units.  On the other hand, while pass-line bettors who parlay naturals and take the odds "win" less often than place bettors, pass-line bettors lose much less money to the inevitable seven.

 

Equally important, when the pass-line bettor does win, he wins more money than he has put at risk.  Following our pass-line system, a win on the pass line will either represent completion of a parlay (that parlay will pay either 3 or 7 times the original amount put at risk), or payment of a pass-line bet in which we have taken double odds.  In either case, the payout will always exceed the amount put at risk to a seven-out.

 

So why do so many players find place betting alluring?  As a pit boss once told me, "all systems work some of the time".  And, when place betting is working, everyone knows it!   When the seven disappears for 15 to 30 minutes, it is almost like an all-you-can-grab money buffet.  Hot tables are certainly a memorable event, one where place bettors are making more than almost anybody else at the table...Including, pass-line bettors...My estimate is that during hands where there are say 20 to 30 box numbers between sevens, the place bettor will make 3 to 5 times to that of a pure pass-line bettor.

 

The trouble is, hands with 20 or 30 box numbers between sevens, don't occur often enough for the place bettor to keep his head above water. One can go days without seeing such a hot table. The seven is a diligent worker that rarely takes much time off. More often than not, the seven is showing, and when the seven is showing, the place bettor is going to lose far bigger than pass-line bettors.

 

A friend of a friend of mine has coined a term he calls “selective memory”.  In my opinion, "selective memory" is the perfect term for what goes on in the mind of a place bettor. It's easy to remember everything about the hot shoot…The guy who placed all the numbers could well make 50 or 100 times his original buy in. Or, how about the guy who parlayed the hard eight three times?  Why that paid over 500 to 1!!!

 

"To the moon" systems, however, seem much less inviting when we consider how much cash the place bettor blew through either waiting for that hot hand, or over-betting a hand that he thought was hot. The old song "Memories" comes to mind.  Specifically, memories "too painful to remember we simply choose to forget...".  [Gosh to think I'm quoting Barbara Streisand. I really am old!!!]

 

Here’s a bit of the math. Most everyone that has ever read a book on craps must have seen this somewhere. It’s the old cumulative probabilities that most every beginning craps book offers. See the table below for the probabilities of each number and each number expressed as odds. It is the wins to losses that I want to focus on.

 

Number	Expectation Out of 36	Chance of Rolling	Expressed as Odds	Number of Wins    To    Losses
2	1	1/36	35:1	0	1
3	2	2/36	17:1	0	2
4	3	3/36	11:1	1	2
5	4	4/36	8:1	1.6	2.4
6	5	5/36	6.2:1	2.27273	2.72727
7	6	6/36	5:1	6	0
8	5	5/36	6.2:1	2.27273	2.72727
9	4	4/36	8:1	1.6	2.4
10	3	3/36	11:1	1	2
11	2	2/36	17:1	2	0
12	1	1/36	35:1	0	1
Total	36	36/36	--	17.74546	18.25454

 

Now, for the fun part.   Add up the total ways to win and the total ways to lose.

 

Total Ways to Win in 36 Rolls = 17.74546

 

Total Ways to Lose in 36 Rolls   = 18.25454

 

Player’s Negative Expectancy

Without Odds                         (18.25454 – 17.74546)

36          = 1.41%

 

Have you ever seen that percentage?

 

Here is a little secret tid-bit. The great Sam Grafstein recognized the play, but I am sure any math he did was done on his fingers. Still, the math affirms the greatness of the Dice Doctor’s system.  See if this adds up?

 

Wins Due to

Naturals  =  8  (22.22222% of total occurrences and 45.08% of total wins)

 

Natural 7  =  6  (16.66667% of total occurrences and 33.81% of total wins)

 

Natural 11 =  2  (5.555556% of total occurrences and 11.27% of total wins)

 

Wins Due to Shooter Making

the Point  =  9.74546  (26.5959 % of total occurrences and 54.92% of total wins)

 

Adds up: 8 + 9.74546 = 17.74546

 

Losses Due to Crap Rolls = 4

 

Losses due to the 7-Out = 14.25454

 

Adds up: 4 + 14.25454 = 18.25454

 

So, now you know where those numbers come from and why the house advantage is what it is. Wadda mean? No!

 

Okay, here is how it comes about. The blue numbers refer to the number of times over 36 rolls that a decision will be won and the red numbers represent decisions lost. This is the mathematical break down for any individual number that can be rolled on a come out.

 

Let's look first at the six. As we know, 5 times out of 36, the shooter will establish six as a point.  If he does roll a six for a point, there are 5 ways to roll a six before a seven (the shooter wins) and 6 ways to roll a seven before a six (the shooter loses).  So the chance over 36 rolls of a shooter winning on a six is (5x5/11), or, 2.27273 times.

 

The chance that a shooter will seven-out (having established six as the point) is (5x6/11). Or, 2.72727 times.  Note that 2.27273 + 2.72727 = 5 and recall that 5 is the number of times over 36 rolls that a shooter will establish 6 as a point. Cool?

 

The math for the eight is, of course, the same as the math for the six.

 

As for the five and nine, we expect to roll both the five and nine 4 times each over 36 rolls. When a five or nine is rolled, there are 4 ways to make the point, and six ways to lose to a seven. So, the number of decisions over 36 rolls that will be won on a five or nine is ((4x4)/10) or 1.6.  The number of times over 36 rolls that a shooter will lose on a five or nine is 2.4 ((4x6)/10).

 

I trust by now, you can figure out the math for the four and ten. There are 3 ways in 36 rolls to establish either the four or the ten. Having rolled the four (or a ten) as the point, there are 3 ways for the shooter to roll a four (or a ten) before the seven, and six ways for a shooter to roll a seven before a four (or a ten).  So over 36 rolls, there will be 1 decision won with four or ten as the point (3x1)/3, and 2 decisions where the shooter sevened out with four or ten as the point (3x2)/3.

 

Lastly, there are come out naturals and craps. A come out seven or eleven will occur 8 times (six times on the seven, two times on the eleven). So, 8 out of 36 rolls will be instant pass-line winners. A come out crap will occur four times. (1 in every 36 rolls for both the two or twelve), and 2 in every 36 rolls for the three.) So 4 out of 36 rolls will be immediate pass-line losers.    

 

I originally developed the chart as a tool to demonstrate the power of naturals, and to illustrate the number of pass-line decisions that are won by seven and eleven.  (Many crap players are unaware of this, but naturals, on average, account for just over 45% of pass line wins!) This chart, however, could also help your understanding of place betting.

 

Place bettors get no benefit from come out sevens or elevens while sharing all the risk from the shooter sevening out. And, place bettors get shorted more on the payout than do pass-line bettors. For example, instead of getting 6 to 5 odds on the six, place bettors receive 7 to 6. Over 36 rolls, if a place bettor bets $12 on the six every roll, he will win 2.27273 times. He should receive a payout of $14.4 ($12 x 1.2). Instead, however, the place bettor gets a payout of $14.00. Over 36 rolls this amounts to a ($0.4 x 2.27273) or $0.91 tax for the $12 place bettor on the six or eight... Do you see how it is a game of numbers? Do you see how over a lifetime career of playing craps the house-advantage works against the player on every roll?? The higher the house odds, the higher the tax the player pays. Even though I live and make my living in the land of big government (Washington DC), I still cringe when I hear the word tax! At least when I am the guy paying the tax.  How about you?

 

D.C. Wizard

© Copyright 2006     

  

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The Dumbo Paradox

 

How is it possible to win with any consistency at craps? How can there be any system that "works"? House advantage is against you at a banked table game.

 

Selective memory causes people to remember the hits and suppress the memory of the losses. They like to talk about how they hit SEVEN with three blacks! Anyone would. To make a crazy bet like that and have it pay off and the expression on everyone's face as it goes from contempt for the idiot betting on SEVEN to envy as that stack of blacks gets pushed over.

 

So many systems appear to feature lots of bets to create lots of action. Many systems seem to try to use the high payback bets in some way because when they hit they really ratchet you forward. If you get lucky before you get seriously hurt, they can really throw you into the plus column fast. As opposed to systems that grind along with the lower return safer bets.

 

Higher volatility systems are attractive because they hit big! The system I looked at unraveling recently involved betting the SEVEN when "sevens were due". That is a big 4:1 payout when it hits. You really scoop up the chips when you are lucky. Of course it is a killer on the downside. Unfortunately "sevens are due" is a totally bogus concept, at least mathematically;

 

If someone has the discipline to quit while they are ahead, high volatility systems can even appear to work.  If one has the discipline to quit when you reach "the threshold of pain" loss level and step away, you can limit your downside sessions and have some nice upside sessions. With fuzzy book keeping, forgetting a nice percentage of these small loss sessions, and emphasizing the big lucky sessions, one might even become convinced that overall you have a winning system.

 

The ONLY winning system is one that manages your money and your betting patterns, is very conscious of house advantage, taps into some kind of (OK I like Metaphysical) metaphysical sense of the flow of the game or similar guidelines, uses iron discipline to step away when the Karma of the game says it "ain't your time" and sharply limit losses, and ratchets forward profits when lady luck is your personal guest. Finally, realizes when she leaves or changes partners and your personal session "maxes out".

 

All of my reflection on systems has come down to that.

 

Math says professional gamblers cannot exist!  Not those which play banked casino games, Nope they cannot exist, anymore than elephants can fly.  But yet they do exist! Call it the Dumbo Paradox. So the above paragraph summarizes the only explanation I have been able to come up with to start resolve this paradox.

 

Finally the theory of large numbers.

 

The gambler's loophole!  It is in the theory of large numbers that professional gamblers can exist. But virtually everyone mistakes the implication that creates the loophole.

 

1. Given an infinite craps game we know the math. We know it with absolute, God like precision of any number of decimal places. Casino's approximate this somewhat because they look out on an ocean of players at multiple tables operating extended 24/7 periods.

 

2. The real world is NOT infinite. In fact with 36 outcomes, the number of rolls of the dice to get the numbers to zero in on the "correct" math from statement #1 is almost beyond belief! Think in terms of well over 1 million rolls of the dice. How long is that at one roll per minute?

 

Ergo, a given real session of craps is as likely to be lopsided as it is to be mathematically accurate. In one session how many hands?  Assume one per minute and a four hour session. We have not even snuk up on 1000 by a LOOOONG shot.  The averages from that session can be off by a mile in any direction. You could easily see a shooter crank out a dozen hardway fours while holding the dice for half an hour. Or any other major deviation.

 

So sessions will be "Hot" or "Cold" or more specifically lopsided far more often than they are mathematically square, often by a large amount.  When viewed from the individual player's viewpoint.  In fact the theory of large numbers actually says the longer you play, the more extreme sessions you will see.

 

So if you want to win, if you want to be a professional, there is one simple task and any "system" design has to take it into account.

 

Identify "what is wrong with this picture" as soon as possible and then apply a betting strategy to capitalize on the current session's deviation from mathematical norm.

 

There is no need for dice memory in this. There is no "sevens are due".  It is just a realization that any given session contains WAY!!! too few rolls to give good math.

 

Metaphysics is something I can believe in because I believe we have two sides to our brain. One side is digital and uses language. It yaks away at us all the time and explains everything in wordy detail. It also does calculator type math. It is where you learned to read and do arithmetic.

 

The other side of our brain is an art student and uses analog, about this big, and red, and fuzzy, and feels good and can only communicate in gut feelings, emotions, colors, shapes and pictures.  It knows and understands colors, pictures, feelings, urges, relationships. It can do certain kinds of math. It can do Geometry for instance, but cannot do Trig.

 

It is just as reasonable and logical as the other side of the brain, but it cannot use language and words to explain itself. But it reasons very fast, it sees things the digital side of our brain does NOT and it is just as logical with its own tools.

 

If we open up, we can tap into what this other half of the brain is trying to tell us. When the gut tightens up, when suddenly something feels wrong, when colors seem to dim and grey out, or get vivid and clear, when the hand moves before the mind can think, when something starts "bumming you out" for no good "reason".  It is your other half of your brain "yelling at you" in its own way with its own communication tools.

 

Isn't it possible that "Metaphysics" is simply learning to view the game as the session progresses and listen to both sides of your brain? The digital "math guy" and the analog "flow guy"?

 

Mike From Hawaii

© Copyright 2006

 

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"Abundance will never be a factor of how much money one has.

Rather it is always a factor of how one feels about what money one does have."

Stuart Wilde

The Trick To Money Is Having Some

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Referrals to my web site and my newsletter are appreciated. Help spread the word. There is more to the games than meets the eye.  "You can win them all Playing 4 Keeps!"

 

Tell your friends about the FREE subscription to the Playing 4 Keeps™ Newsletter. Have them send a blank email to: playing4keeps@aweber.com

 

Thank you for your continued loyalty. Your comments, questions and suggestions are always welcome. Email: professor@playing4keeps.com

 

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Purpose Statement:

Playing 4 Keeps™ enriches a player's experience to become a consistent winner. My commitment to you is empowerment. Learning to employ discipline creates confidence and strengthens intention through metaphysical lessons. I empower students by showing them how to avoid losing sessions. Most importantly I create metaphors that link the knowledge of casino games to winning ways in "the game of life". Michael Vernon

 

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