Playing 4 Keeps ™
A Gaming News
Letter For Winners
December 2006
Volume 8 Issue
12
Copyright
©2006 Michael Vernon
"Luck Has Nothing To Do With It When
You Are Playing 4 Keeps!"
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In This Issue:
Full Boat...
Smoking Boat...
Any Advice?
Gaming Events
Recommended Links
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Somewhere in a
poker game sits Charlie…What a good hand! Just one more card and all that
money in the pot will be all mine! Heart pounding, it feels like my bursting
excitement is going to give my hand away. My turn to bet. I push out a stack of
chips proudly. From the next two players, I hear “fold… fold”, then, from the
last player in the game came the most feared words in Texas Hold’em, “Raise, I’m
all in!” What? Someone is crazy enough to call my two pair? They are obviously
bluffing and trying to run me out. The thumping of my heart is like a bass drum
beating in my head. A flush of heat, prickles through my body, as I can hardly
restrain my thrill. Without a pause, I said, “I call! Two pair, Kings and
Queens.” Oh, how proud I am of my two pair. Expecting the other player to fold
their cards in embarrassment, to my surprise, they turned them up and the dealer
exclaimed, “Full Boat, Queens over Tens.” The huge pile of chips disappeared
from my grasp like a wave crashing over to the player holding the full house.
With the help of the dealer, raking them out of the way, my big pot and all of
my chips had receded to low tide. How did that happen?
Let’s re-set the
scene of Charlie’s disastrous loss.
The five cards on
the board (five common cards to all players) appeared King, 10, Queen, with the
flop, (first three cards) then with the fourth card (the turn card) another
Queen and the fifth card (the river card) there was an eight. (King, 10, Queen,
Queen, 8)
Our astonished
friend was holding King/Jack in his hand. He thought his pair of Kings and
Queens, on the board were a winning hand.
In his excitement,
Charlie failed to think through all the possibilities for better hands. This is
what, among other things, he should have been paying attention to…
-
What is the best possible hand?
-
Who is in the game and what might
they be holding to keep them playing?
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What was his position? The order of
play is important to note.
-
Charlie seemed to ignore the two
Queens on the board belong to every player.
-
Any time there is pair on the
board, a player could have four of a kind, a high full house, a low full
house, three of a kind or a higher two pair.
-
Just because Charlie thought that
he had a great hand, it did not mean he had the best hand.
-
He needed to check uncontrolled
emotion and pay attention to the cards. His emotion started to take over.
-
Red flag!
When Charlie was raised, any raise, it was a wake up call. He should have
snapped out of his euphoric state. The all in raise was saying to him,
“warning Charlie, you really need to think through your next move”.
Dissecting the
above list of things Charlie could have observed, 1-8…
-
The best possible hand is four
Queens, then as follows: full house – Kings over Queens, Queens over any other
pair, any other three cards over Queens, a flush, a straight, three of a kind,
and finally a higher two pair, Aces and Queens. There are eight other possible
hands better than Charlie’s two pair. (I leave out the royal flush, to keep
the example simpler)
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When other players are still in the
game, you have to be asking why? What do they have to be so proud of that they
are still betting?
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Your position in the game, your
turn to play, is important. Having to bet first is usually a weaker position
to bet from. Betting last is more powerful because you have the advantage of
watching all the previous action and player’s moves. You have the last option
to bet or to raise a bet.
-
Overlooking the fact that two
Queens are just as much a part of Charlie’s opponent’s hand as it was his, is
what cost Charlie. He was so enamored with a good hand that he was ignorant
that anyone else could beat him. He sailed his two pair blindly into harms
way.
-
When playing Texas Hold’em, and
there is a pair on the board, the cards must be ranked in the order of
possible hands as in #1 above. Four of a kind is a rare event, but in Texas
Hold’em a full house is more probable. Especially with paired high cards.
(Players are more likely to play hands with high cards) With pairs on the
board, think full house. Can I beat a full house?
-
Charlie’s two pair are only as good
as they stack up to other possibilities. This is covered in #4 above and a
novice’s mistake. Texas Hold’em Poker, having community cards, is not like
other poker games, like stud and draw for example. A player has to figure out
the ranking of his hand compared to other possible hands that share the same
cards. This may be the hardest part of the game for some players, to control
emotion and play the cards intelligently. Often, the best play is being able
to fold good hand. Accept that there are too many other possibilities that can
beat the hand. This takes discipline, savvy, and detachment from the emotion.
-
A raise is a fairly obvious sign to
be alert, especially at the end of a hand. If suddenly a raise shocks you,
especially a large raise, it is likely that players hand has you beat. They
are counting on your emotion to chase the pot like Charlie. When this happens,
take a moment to sort out possibilities.
-
Consider the hand your opponent
might have that keeps them betting with you.
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Consider your position and the
position of the player who raised the bet.
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Consider how the raiser has been
playing in other hands.
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Consider how the betting occurred
throughout the hand.
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Consider how much it will cost
you to see if your ninth place hand is good enough.
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Consider if you really have a
shot at the winning hand.
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Consider that the other player
may be trying to bully you out of the pot. Do you really want to risk all
your money to find out?
When there is a
pair on the board, the game of Texas Hold’em gets either very simple, you have a
strong hand to compete with, or you fold. If you continue with the play, it can
become complicated. For one, you have to put the opponent “on their hand”. What
are the cards that you are up against?
Figuring out what
motivates your opponent to continue is key to winning the money. With a pair on
the board many good hands are possible. Don’ be caught out having to go all in
with a ninth place hand.
Evaluating poker
hands will make a huge improvement in your game. Two pair on the board,
alert, alert, the full boat could be coming in to
dock!
Over the
Thanksgiving Holiday, my wife and I drove to Atlanta to visit her father. On
just about every river the highway crosses, a casino may be floating. In fact,
it got to be a joke between us. I’d ask Lin to look both ways for a floating
casino every time we passed over a river.
I do not care for
barge casinos and this last experience has me cured forever. Looking for a poker
game, we decided to stop at Metropolis, Illinois, for the night. There is a
Harrah’s casino in that little burg on the Ohio River.
Stepping on to the
boat, we immediately found it difficult to breathe. The smoke was so thick we
found it easier to chew the air than to inhale it. Scary really, when you can’t
take a breath! Bound and determined to play poker, I knew the game would be
found on the upper deck. Slot machines are strategically placed for the players
paying the rent. We trudged onward. On the second deck I found the table games
and, of course, more smoke. Both dice games were $10 minimum bet games and
looked very grim. I would have been afraid to touch the dirty chips, never mind
engaging the game. The blackjack games were the expected poor rules found in
most casinos these days. Amazingly, every table was full of players,. Finally,
on the third deck we found a sign that read “poker room”. Another sign, hand
written, was taped it… “Closed for the holiday”. Just as well. It really was not
a poker room as much as an after thought of three tables, crowded into a corner
and roped off to keep the slot players from spilling into the “card room”.
I said a quick
thank you prayer that the “poker room” was closed and headed back down to the
exit as quick as my oxygen-depleted legs could carry me. I was trying to hold my
breath all the way. I had glimpses of my childhood, playing the “how long can
you hold your breath” game. While at the same time, I wondered if it wasn’t my
life flashing before me and I was about to have a heart attack.
We made it down to
what might be considered “breathable air”, in the corridor leading to the barge.
I saw a sign on an etched glass door, “Player’s Lounge”. Lin suggested a
cocktail. You don’t have to ask me twice. Walking in we were met by a stiff, “my
I help you”, only to find that we had not arrived to the comfort of a plush
cocktail lounge, but the office of a stodgy casino host. He was obviously in no
mood for guests. Not to worry, I was prepared. “Two margaritas, on the rocks,
and no salt on one of them”, I ordered. It was worth the unexpected fee of five
bucks that I later had to pay in order to get the car back from the valet. Okay,
so it is not a lounge, even though it says “Lounge” on the door. Where might
someone go to have a drink? The host begrudgingly informed us that across the
way, the buffet was closing for food but would re-open for drinks in forty-five
minutes. (Just what I had in mind, wasting more time on a floating dump) He
followed up that poor suggestion with, “There is bar at the hotel”. There was
supposed to be a bar across from the casino near the hotel registration desk.
Great, we get to walk in fresh air and then find a comfortable bar in the hotel
lounge.
It was just not our
night. There was no bar, no lounge, nothing that even approached what Lin and I
had in mind. The only outlet in the hotel was a brightly lit café. Forget it!
The one saving grace of the whole ordeal was staying over in Metropolis,
Illinois. We got to have a laugh. By accident, we drove through the center of
town to see a three story painted statue of, the “Man”. I lost twenty bucks
without playing one game or one hand of cards. I bet Lin that it was not the
home of Superman about 120 miles before reaching Metropolis. Now I get how he
was able to leap over the buildings in single bound… nothing over two stories in
Metropolis…and the boat and statue doesn’t count.
Any Advice?
Michael, I do
believe very much in dice setting. I even built a practice table. I don't
practice as much as I should but I believe what the books say that if I can
change the SRS from 1-6 to 1-7 or 1-8 on my throw the math goes from 1.41
against me on the 6 and 8 to a plus 16% or something like that.
I love shooting the dice. My favorite dice set is the 3:3 V on top, and nothing
on the dice except 6 and 8's. I have held the dice for about 1 hour, two times
that I remember when I was shooting with the 3x3.on top.
My favorite place to throw from is 1st position, stick left. But,
that position is hard to get sometimes because of the crowd at the table. I
figure it's only 9 feet from that position to the end of table, and the shorter
the distance that I have to throw the dice, the less chance for making a
mistake. My main problem with shooting the dice is I don’t know how to bet
correctly.
Any advice?
Name withheld
Dice setting is probably about a 1-2% advantage tops... when you have it
working.
It is over rated. Few people that are into it are honest enough to admit it.
When it works it is beautiful. When it doesn't, well, I still relay on the more
important aspects of my game. I suppose anyone reading this could say that it
sounds like I am one that still has a long way to go with dice setting... that
is one of my points. When a dice setter has trouble, there is always an excuse
to explain away poor performance. The reason, not the excuse, is no matter what
you try to do, random is going to be the result most of the time. Anyone that is
advertising differently is misleading, for effect. The theory is based on a
player’s ability to develop a consistent skill. Again, once at a mastered skill
level, a player is looking at 1-2% results.
We do not have to shoot dice to make money. All that is needed is to position
ourselves in the right game at the right time to make money. To hinge one's
belief on the fact that they are going to "do" something special, because they
are a dice setter is nonsense. It could be costly. I have witnessed a table full
of dice setters wiped out because they could not accept the fact that their dice
setting skill was not working. No one could catch a hand, yet they still filled
the table with bets. Going broke was their only of way accepting defeat.
You are correct about shooting. Shooting is fun and you should keep it that way.
Learn to shoot from any position. It is the same principle. No matter the
position, you just have to make adjustments... physical adjustments and mental
adjustments. No big deal. If you see a game that is working, never bother with
"oh my position is taken". If you want in, then get in! We are not John Waynes!
Dice setting does not magically make us heroes. It is about owning knowledge of
the game, having command of the tools, and then, you still must put it all
together in order to experience the win.
When someone goes
on about a long roll, measured in time, it is meaningless without knowing how
many points were won. A person can roll 36 times in ten minutes... that could be
36 numbers with four passes. See? Time is irrelevant because there are so many
hindering factors that cause the game to slow down. Look for passes! That is
where the money is made in the long run. (Those muttering that lots of numbers
can roll without a pass, while place bets and come bets win, I hear you. But you
are missing the point. Those occurrences are rare.)
http://www.playing4keeps.com/06news.vol8.09.htm and
http://www.playing4keeps.com/06news.vol8.10.htm for more explanation.
I have been working with, Mike In Hawaii; he also has some great articles up on
the Dice Setter Newsletter.
http://www.dicesetter.com/newsletter/toc.htm (October, November and December
2006) He explains fairly how much advantage a skilled dice setter may expect. He
believes, as I do, that there is a place for dice setting... a small place. It
is not some big secret weapon that can take down a casino. For those willing to
make the commitment of practice, it may provide as slight edge.
Of course, you have a problem with dice setting thinking that there are proper
betting strategies. Really, how are you going to know ahead of time what the
dice are going to do? How are you going to employ ahead of time the proper
betting strategy? Is it hindsight that drives your betting methods? How many
ways to play will you have to respond with for the many conditions that you will
encounter? Playing dice does not have to be this complicated!
You simply must have a proper betting strategy with or without dice setting
first. Dice setting is not number one... it is way down the list of importance.
Money management is at the top. How the player uses his limited funds is
critical to success. Cube dice are bound to tumble randomly a majority of the
time and adhere to probability. Better to have a strategy for a random game than
those times that are outside probability. In other words, focus on the more
important aspects first. It is better to be prepared for the typical game than
the atypical exception.
Well, that’s it for this edition of the Playing 4 Keeps™ Newsletter.
Wishing You All a Joyous Holiday Season!
See you at the
tables Playing 4 Keeps™!
Michael Vernon
Author and Gaming Instructor
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