If you missed the
two previous episodes of On The Coat Tales of a Gambler, you can catch up to
Episode 20 at the following links.
http://www.playing4keeps.com/Newsletters/2007/August.htm
http://www.playing4keeps.com/Newsletters/2007/SeptOct.htm
On the Coat Tales of a
Gambler, Episode 20
Sailor continues his story...
After eating a greasy breakfast, I felt remarkably
better, considering my lack of sleep. I drove Scarpone back to Jimmy Jive’s Juke
Joint. He had his game face on and was ready to play Texas Hold’em poker.
Neither of us spoke during the drive. The events of the early morning on Beal
Street were still fresh in my emotions. There was nothing to be gained by
telling Scarpone I almost lost his Lincoln. I also knew better than to break his
concentration before a big game. Scarpone could take himself into an altered
state of consciousness. It was strange to be with him at these times, it was
almost scary. He was keenly aware of his surroundings. At the same time, I had
the feeling that I was invisible to him.
When we arrived at
JJ’s, Scarpone gestured where he wanted me to park the Lincoln. I made sure all
the doors were locked when we got out of the car. Pushing out his bottom lip and
nodding his head to the side, “Good idea kid!” Scarpone said, praising my act of
prudence. Just before entering JJ’s, Scarpone put his arm on my shoulder with
some advice, “Keep out of trouble and keep an eye on the car!” That was an eerie
feeling for me. It was as though Scarpone knew about my adventure with his
Lincoln.
“Mike the Knife”
and “Benny Out da Window” were still playing cards. Scarpone and I went over to
the bar where there was free coffee and donuts. Mike joined us in a cup of Joe.
Mike reported that the game was holding up for him but that Benny had been on a
rollercoaster ride, up and down. He told us that Benny was doing okay now, yet
he wished that Benny would tighten up his game. Benny played too aggressive. His
aggressiveness was the main reason he would win and then lose it back. Benny was
more of a crook than he was a card player. Scarpone used to say Benny played
cards like the burglar that he was, quick to slip in any open window and quick
to get out with the loot. Benny lacked the patience necessary to be a good poker
player. He always tried to force the hand to go his way. When he won, he’d start
pushing the other players around. When he was losing, he pushed even harder,
demanding the other players to dare to play against him. Adding to his
aggressive play, Benny was also known for an occasional out burst of ill temper.
Scarpone had to save Benny more than a few times from his own self-destructive
anger. It wasn’t because Benny couldn’t handle himself in a fight. It was
because when Benny got to the boiling over point, he was literally too dangerous
for his own good… an enraged mad man would not be an exaggeration when Benny
lost his temper.
In a whisper, as
though he did not want Mike to hear him, Scarpone told me to keep an eye on
Benny. I knew what Scarpone meant without further explanation. He wanted me to
watch Benny. Should Benny go on tilt, chasing his losses, Scarpone wanted
to know. If anyone
could influence Benny to do something, it was Scarpone. Add to that the years of
friendship and one could see why Benny would cooperate with Scarpone. Scarpone’s
success with calming Benny down was to get Benny thinking that it was he idea to
do whatever. This was part of the reason why Scarpone was asking me to watch
Benny on the QT. He did not want Mike to think that Benny needed a “nurse maid”.
Scarpone finally
sat down at the poker game. There were several new players sitting at the table.
There was a lot of cash in the game.
I decided to play
some quarter craps. I played for about an hour. The coffee was no longer
competition for my lack of sleep. After winning a few bucks at craps, I crashed
in the back seat of the Lincoln. Benny was keeping his game together anyway, and
I let Scarpone know where I would be.
It was afternoon
when I woke up from my sleep in the car. JJ’s was on the outskirts of Memphis.
Road house gambling was not that uncommon in the South, but it was nevertheless,
still illegal. Just like back home, the gambling joints kept a low profile from
the law. No doubt JJ paid off the cops.
Both poker games
were going strong, however, there were new faces. Obviously the missing
members had busted out of the game. Scarpone was doing okay. “Mike the Knife”
was out of the game and having something to eat. Benny was in a corner, slumped
over a table sound asleep. I joined Mike while he ate. He told me he was done
playing. He won some money, but it had been a grind. He just was not getting the
cards and, when he did catch a hand, it was too obvious to the other players. No
one would hang very long when Mike was in the game. Texas Hold’em takes a lot of
patience and it is a game of tells. The more you play the more you see that it
is not just playing cards. It is far more complicated. Poker is the kind of game
that takes its shape around the players’ personalities. Reading the players,
tracking styles of play and noting subtleties is what separates the winners from
the losers. Mike was a good player. He was good enough know when it was time to
call it quits. The other players in the game had him pegged to his hand. He knew
it was wiser to take some profit and have a successful trip rather than continue
to play with the exposure of being caught out with a great second place hand and
losing a bunch of money. That was the lesson of experience.
Benny was also
winning. As it turned out, he was the reason for the missing members in his
game. Mike told me that Benny was as much of the reason he decided to stop
playing. Benny had hit a streak, catching unbelievable hands. The aggressive
style of Benny’s play drove out a lot of the player’s money that could have been
in the pot. As usual, with his winning, came Benny’s abusive attitude. The way
Benny rubbed it in when he won had most of the players hating Benny. Of course,
Benny could give a rat’s ass about what anyone thought of him. He was blind to
what he caused. It was as though he took more pleasure pissing someone off than
winning their money.
It was no surprise
that Scarpone was winning too. Mike told me Scarpone wanted to win one more pot
and we’d hit the road back to Memphis. As long as Benny slept, all was good.
“Leaving sleeping dogs lie”, was a good expression for Benny.
Mike and I chatted
for a while. I asked him if he wanted to play some craps. He did not. He figured
to keep what he had won and besides, he did not want the attention of winning at
dice on top of his poker success. Mike was a humble, low profile player. He
always kept his cool. He kept his mouth shut and he knew when the getting was
good and he would quit. There was no reason for greed. This was one of the
reasons why he and Scarpone got along so well. They were head down players,
strong with discipline and the street savvy of knowing when they had gotten the
best of it.
The juke joint was
filling with the evening customers. Excitement and music was in the air when
Scarpone caught his hand. He was playing in the big blind. Ed, the player in
early position limped in. The next three players folded. A raise came from the
cut-off man (Ely). The action was on the "button" man (Russell). “I sure hope you have
good cards, I re-raise!” Russell said challenging Ely to call him. The small
blind folded his cards into the muck. Scarpone’s attention had been on the other
players, noting their play before he ever looked at his cards. He lifted the
corner of each card protected in the nest of his cupped hands. The ace of spades
and ace of clubs were the indexes he could see winking back at him.
With three other
players already in the pot and with two raises, Scarpone hoped that his aces
would be the best hand after the flop. He decided that he would make his move on
the flop. He wanted as much money in the pot as he could lure. Knowing that the
dealer was holding good cards, he knew he would not have to lead the way with
the betting. He could check and raise. Normally, with pocket aces, Scarpone
would re-raise before the flop but he had concerns. If he were to re-raise now,
he could lose at least two of the players and put the dealer on alert that he
was likely holding a large pocket pair. He also figured pocket aces were
possible in Russell’s hand. However, after playing for hours with these
gentlemen, Scarpone felt that Russell was probably playing a “scared pair”
(pocket pairs like 9/9 or 10/10) and Ely who started with the raise may have an
ace/king. Since Ed limped in, in early position, Scarpone put Ed on suited and
connected face cards, and that Ed was just hoping to catch a flop for cheap.
Scarpone did not
want to take too long with his decision to play. After all, for him to call two
raises was a no-brainer decision. At the same time, he wanted to set his trap.
What Scarpone did was to appear as though he liked his cards, but not enough to
pay the price of two raises. However, he did make the call on the pretence of
the money already in the pot… pot odds as it’s called. Remember too, he was the
big blind and already in for one bet and defending his big blind was not an
unusual play for Scarpone.
The early position
player Ed called and so did Ely, the first raiser. This was better than Scarpone
had hoped. He did not think that Ed would call the two raises. He did hope that
Ely’s ego would kick in after Russell’s remark about good cards and pay to see a
flop.
The flop brought a
seven of hearts, Jack of diamonds and ace of diamonds to the board. Scarpone was
first to act and checked his set of aces. At this point in the hand, nothing
could beat him and he knew if another player held an ace, that player would
likely bet their hand. Ed was holding the King/Queen of diamonds and he had a
royal flush draw. He made a bet. Ely was next holding the “scared pair”, pocket
eights. With two over-cards and nothing for Ely to draw on, he folded the hand.
Russell was last to bet and he raised, doubling Ed’s bet. Scarpone called as did
Ed with his royal flush draw. The turn card brought the Jack of clubs. This gave
Scarpone a full house, aces over jacks. However, he no longer had the best
possible hand. Again, Scarpone checked to Ed. He wanted to see if someone else
felt proud enough to do the betting. Ed checked, but Russell, who was on the
button, raised again, double his last bet. Scarpone, later admitted his concern
of the doubled bet. The second Jack obviously helped Russell’s hand. Scarpone’s
dilemma, was Russell holding pocket Jacks, for four of a kind?
Scarpone figured
his hand was not likely to improve. He had a full house, aces over Jacks. He
felt it was unlikely to hit the forth ace with the river card. One of the other
players surely held the forth ace. Only four Jacks or a long short royal flush,
could beat him. Scarpone deliberated and then put on his Spanish charm saying,
“I know the only way I will get to see your four Jacks is to pay you off, I
call.” This took care of Ed on the royal flush draw. The bet was too rich for
his blood. He folded his hand with reluctance and discuss. Russell turned over
the river card as if it did not matter to him. The river card was of no
consequence to the remaining players. However, Scarpone picked up a tell on Ed’s
face. His royal flush draw hit and Scarpone heard “god damn it” through Ed’s
clenched jaw. This was a huge help to Scarpone, to have picked up on Ed’s
reaction to the river card, a ten of diamonds. Now Scarpone could take a guess
at where the fourth ace was along with the pocket pair that he felt was out
there.
The action was on
Scarpone. The ten of diamonds could mean a flush but it would be second place to
his full house. With the royal flush was in the muck, Scarpone’s puzzle was
figuring out who held the fourth ace. Did the Ely fold the fourth ace on the
flop or did he fold the “scared pair”? Questions, questions and the answers had
to come quick. When Russell raised pre-flop, he could have been raising with
pocket Jacks. But what if the middle player Ely, raised with the “scared pair”
and Russell was simply playing position, re-raising with an ace/king or
ace/queen, trying to bully the other players out of the hand.
“Well Scarpone, are
you going to pay to see four Jacks?” Russell said, touting Scarpone. Scarpone
drew a heavy breath, exhaling he said, “I am a man of my word, I’m all in.”
There was over sixty grand in the pot. Now, no matter what cards Russell held,
there was too much money on the table for him to quit. Scarpone knew it. In
fact, he was counting on it. It was a shrewd and bold play to set up. It is one
thing to have a winning hand but getting the opponent to believe that their hand
is best is expert play. Now, would Scarpone pull it off, or would Russell take
the pot with four Jacks?
Russell pushed in
the rest of his money. Scarpone turned over his pocket aces and in a quite voice
said, “Aces full of Jacks.”
“Son of a bitch!”
Shouted Russell! He stood up in a rage and threw down his cards, the ace and
Jack of hearts.
When Russell hit
top two pair on the flop, he never slowed down. When the turn card gave Russell
the full house, Jacks over aces, he felt sure of his win.
Driving back to
Greenville, Scarpone relived that hand several times, always finishing with,
“You know boys, the whole reason I like to play poker is to catch the other guy
out with a great second place hand. I like to get him feeling real good about
himself so he’ll be happy pushing in all his money. I like people to feel happy,
just before I bang’em right between the eyes.”
On The Coat Tales of a Gambler continues....
<top>
Math, Dice, and Playing Wrong...
Recently I received an email from a reader stating that they were not into dice
setting, but their interests were in the math of the game. Well, with two six
sided cubes, the math of craps is about as predictable, for a game of chance, as
you can find. What's not predicable is the out come of two dice hurled down the
layout. It does not matter if the dice are pre-arranged in a set or rolled
randomly. That's why they call it a "crap shoot" Babs!
I started my craps career as a pass line player. I struggled playing the pass
line with inconsistent results. After witnessing Stuart Wilde take a several
thousand dollar win, playing the don't pass at the Princess Casino in Nassau, I
decided to switch. For the next four years, I consistently won, playing don't
pass. So, for those of you in need of
some math, here it it is a long with a general description for playing the
don't pass line. However, make a note, this is how the rules of the don't pass
bet
translates, not the strategy I necessarily use.
Playing Wrong! The Dice Don’t
Pass
Playing “Wrong” is not a judgment it is just
another way to play the game. Put on your thinking caps here. Playing wrong or
playing the don’t is opposite to playing "right" or playing the pass line. When
playing the don’t pass, you are betting that the shooter will roll a seven
before rolling the point. Hence, the dice don’t pass. A "pass" is a win on the
"pass line." As a don't pass bettor, you are
betting that the result of the hand will be a loser for the pass line.
The house advantage is about the same for a don't pass bet as it is for the pass line, 1.4%.
Quick Review of a Don’t Pass Line
Bet
For the don’t better, 7
or 11 on the come out is a losing roll while 2 or 3, craps is a natural
winner and 12 is barred or a push. After a point is established, the don’t pass
bet wins when a 7 rolls before the point, 4 ,5, 6, 8, 9,
10.
We already know that the don’t pass bet is
made during a come out roll. The don’t pass bet is not a contract bet. You
may pick up the bet anytime you want. Of course, being the odds on favorite to
win, you would never do that.
That Seems Odd...
Let’s move on to laying odds with a don’t pass
bet. Do you still have the thinking cap on? When the dice are not passing,
not winning for the pass line player, playing the don’t pass can make
“cents”. Just like a pass line bet, the player can make an additional odds bet
with the don’t pass bet. The tricky part is inverting the odds for the pay
off. In other words, you must lay more money in odds to win less money… Yes,
that does seem odd. However, it is correct because the bet is favored to win
with the seven out. The odds bet
has no house advantage other than with the original don’t pass bet which is paid
even money. When playing the don’t pass and you lay odds behind a point, you are
favored to win by 2:1 for the 4/10, 3:2 for the 5/9 and 6:5 for the 6/8.
That is why you must lay bet $20 with a $5 don’t
pass bet for a point of 4 or 10. You lay $20 to win $10. Get it? It is
exactly the opposite of the pass line. Watch this…
The pass line bet of $5 with $10 double odds
wins a total of $25 on a 4 or 10.
The don’t pass bet of $5 with $20 double odds
wins a total of $15.
So, how does the casino stay in business? Let
the accountants worry about that. The casino seems to be doing okay.
The amount you may lay in odds varies from
casino to casino. It is recommended that until you have a command of the game
that you stick with double odds in the beginning. You will have to learn the
math for the odds in order to make the correct lay bet for the established
point. The house advantage on a don’t pass bet with double odds is about
.6%
Take a short review...
When the don’t pass bet with odds wins, you are
paid even money for the don’t pass bet and true odds for the odds portion
of the wager. The true odds payoff is determined by the point number. Odds are
express by the number of ways a point has of winning verses the number of ways
of losing to the 7.
Lets look at the 4/10 for example. If you have a
pair of dice handy, get them. Refer to the
table below. With two dice, rolling a 4 or 10 has three possible combinations.
The four has 1/3, 3/1, and 2//2.
The ten has 4/6, 6/4, and 5/5.
Those are the three ways of rolling a 4 or a 10.
The seven has six possible combinations of
rolling.
1/6, 6/1, 2/5, 5/2, 3/4, 4/3.
Some casinos offer "raiser odds", or
even odds
greater than raiser odds such as 10 time, 20 time or 100 times odds. Again, when you are just learning, double odds will be
plenty for you to play, win or lose. Raiser odds are 5 times the pass line bet for
the 6/8, 4 times the pass line bet for the 5/9, and 3 times the pass line bet for the
4/10.
For you convenience here is a table for true
odds so you can figure the odds for your self when laying the odds.
True
Odds for a Lay Bet
|
4 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
1 to
2 |
2 to
3 |
5 to 6 |
5 to
6 |
2 to
3 |
1 to
2 |
|
Pays 1 unit for every 2
units bet |
Pays 2 units for every 3
units bet |
Pays 5 units for every 6
units bet |
Pays 5 units for every 6
units bet |
Pays 2 units for every 3
units bet |
Pays 1 unit for every 2
units bet |
There are six sides to a die and with two dice;
there are thirty-six combinations possible. Below is a table of the thirty-six
possibilities for rolling the eleven numbers.
The 36 Possible Combinations of Two Dice:
|
Number |
Dice Combinations |
Ways of Rolling |
|
2 |
1-1 |
1 |
|
3 |
|
2 |
|
4 |
1-3, 2-2, 3-1 |
3 |
|
5 |
1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1 |
4 |
|
6 |
1-5, 2-4, 3-3, 4-2, 5-1
|
5 |
|
7 |
1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2,
6-1 |
6 |
|
8 |
2-6, 3-5, 4-4, 5-3, 6-2 |
5 |
|
9 |
3-6, 4-5, 5-4, 6-3 |
4 |
|
10 |
|
3 |
|
11 |
5-6, 6-5 |
2 |
|
12 |
6-6 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
The odds are expressed as a ratio of the number
of ways of rolling a certain number, divided by the total possible combinations.
Examples: There is one possible combination of rolling 12, six/six. Thus the odds of
12 rolling is one in thirty-six or 1/36. There are six possible combinations for
7 to roll, thus the odds of a 7 rolling are 6/36 or 1/6, one out of six.
True odds are an expression of the number of
possible winning combinations to the number of losing combinations.
Example for a don't pass bet for the 6 or 8: The true odds are 6 to 5. Six
ways of winning to five
ways of losing. Six 7's verses five 6's
or five 8's. Thus 6:5
To conclude, the don’t pass bet is an opposite
play to the
pass line bet when you understand the odds. The
don't
pass bet is against the dice passing,
meaning that the
seven will roll before the point in order to
win. The odds
portion of the bet are paid true odds and thus
reduces the
house advantage to about .6%
