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This Don't Pass play is a mix of a progression and a
modified chase scheme. I call it Up
as You Go. It means,
either way you play, win or lose you are upping your bet. A winning bet increases
by 50%. If you lose during a progression, drop back to the original bet. In my
example it is $10 unit. If you lose the base bet, then you chase, using the
chart below.
Let’s keep this simple.
Playing a $10 flat bet. If it loses, you move
over to Level II in the Chase Table and bet $15. If the $15 bet loses, you move over to
Level III, and bet $16.
If you win 16 and drop down Column III and bet $11. Win at $11 and drop down to $8. Lose
$8 and go up Column III to $11. See how you move up or down the Chase Table,
depending on the out of the last bet made.
The goal is to get out of the maze and
back to a winning 50%
progression. 10-15-20-30-45 and so on. If you catch a string of 7-outs and you
can pick up
eggs like in a hen house quick. I have witnessed 17 outs without a pass. Do the
math. The neat thing about this play is you only have to
win 40% of the outcomes to show a profit.
Chase Table Bets
|
Level |
I |
II |
III |
IV |
V |
VI |
VII |
|
Bet |
10 |
15 |
16 |
25 |
30 |
45 |
60 |
|
|
|
8 |
11 |
15 |
25 |
35 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
8 |
10 |
20 |
25 |
40 |
For those asking about laying odds, it is not done with this play because of how
the strategy is set up on flat bets. I always start
an argument when I say this. But here goes. I figure that once I am behind a
number, say 4 or 10, I have the advantage. Once behind either number the bet is
the odds on favorite. I am getting paid even money for a bet that is a 2 to 1
favorite to win. I already feel like a winner.
Losing a Don’t
bet with odds requires the player to win two set
ups. See the table.
Profit and Loss of a 10$
Don’t Bet Laying Double Odds
POINT NUMBERS
|
6/8 |
5/9 |
4/10 |
|
LOSES |
<$40> |
<$40> |
<$50> |
|
WINS |
$35 |
$30 |
$30 |
Now, take a look at the
profit for a $10 Don’t Bet laying double odds after a loss and then followed by
two wins to come the money won laying odds to the money won betting flat.
LOSING
POINT NUMBERS
|
|
6/8
|
5/9
|
4/10
|
|
BET
LOST |
<$40> |
<$40> |
<$50> |
|
Combinations
of two
winning hands
and profit for each. |
Net Profit
After a Loss |
Net Profit
After a Loss |
Net Profit
After a Loss |
|
6/8 &
6/8 = $70 |
$30 |
$30 |
$20 |
|
6/8 &
5/9 = $65 |
$25 |
$25 |
$15 |
|
6/8 &
4/10 = $65 |
$25 |
$25 |
$15 |
|
5/9 &
5/9 = $60 |
$20 |
$20 |
$10 |
|
5/9 &
4/10 = $60 |
$20 |
$20 |
$10 |
|
4/10 &
4/10 = $60 |
$20 |
$20 |
$10 |
Subtract the bet lost from
the profit of two consecutive winning hands and you have the net profit of two
winning Don’t Pass bets with double odds following a loss. There are eighteen
possible outcomes for a total of $360. The average win is
$20 for a $10 Don’t Pass bet laying double odds. Seven of the combinations net $20,
three of the ways net only $10, four ways net $25 and two ways net $30.
So, I figure if on average, if I am only going to win
$20, why risk more than I am going to win if the average outcome is the same? Somewhere in here is where the math guys jump me. Okay, it’s
all in my head. But after playing this way, it really ends up "all in my rail”.
If you reconcile this play within your emotions, I believe that you will agree
that it make cent$.
Betting $10 is
a more
conservative play. It allows for a smaller bankroll to get into the game. This
play can work great like a "tow truck" to pull a lost game out of the ditch. In
other words, salvage what’s left of a losing Pass Line game that went south. I
have used it to bail me
out of plenty of nightmares. Even if all you do is claw your way back to even,
at least you have your bankroll back for the next game.
Up as You Go, described above, is an abbreviated version of the play which is
more thoroughly detailed in the Do's and Don'ts of Dice
Playbook.
The Professor
Copyright© 2006 Michael Vernon
www.playing4keeps.com
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