November 11^th, 2016

Aloha Professor,

I consider my “creation”, Fair Market Value, , a concept of my best work. With it I was able to go on to analyze quite complex betting strategies to get specific numbers without resorting to Monte Carlo testing or millions of rolls, to zero in on anything which was usefully accurate. Basically with Fair Market Value you can do God math (to infinity and beyond!) and get answers, though with some effort, to avoid mind twisting in creating the spreadsheets. Never the less, the basic idea still applies. Each chip bet in each stage of the hand at any given moment has a “Fair Market Value”. You can compute the “Fair Market Value” of your entire bet complex on the felt. At that point, based on your strategy outline, it is simply the sum of the “Fair Market Value” of each chip that you have in action.

Anyway, your recent blog post about the math and playing the don’t pass, gave me a flashback.
Aloha, Mike in Hawaii.

Note to the reader: I cut the above message from an email recently receive from Mike in Hawaii. I have conversed with Mike over many years, sharing ideas, both metaphysical and mathematical. Mike requests anonymity. Without providing his credentials, you have to take my word that Mike is brilliant with his foresight of mathematics as it relates to the game of craps.

His Monte Carlo machine, a program he created that can run millions of trials in a short time, proves the math does not lie. However, he has explained why long hands during a craps game manifest as the dice “act” out of probability. In my opinion, his article, The Distance Between Sevens, explains the impact of perception and how perception of metaphysical information is likely the Holy Grail for the game of craps. You will find The Distance Between Sevens in the P4K Blogs, Craps.

Mike in Hawaii provided me with an updated version of Fair Market Value. He owns the copyright and gave me permission to publish the article, once again. The original document was first publish at my old Playing 4 Keeps web site, August 2007. Click here to read Fair Market Value