When it comes to gambling, there is no sure system of course. The rules of the games are designed to always favor the operators of the game. Be it a game of blackjack, craps, roulette, baccarat or any of the other now popular table games, either way you play, odds are against you to win. With that understood, I am going to address playing the Don’t Pass and Don’t Come using dice manipulation.

Before launching into the concept of dice setting and playing the Don’t Pass, a bit of clarification is due. Playing the Don’t Pass is often misrepresented as playing with the “House”. Even in Baccarat when the bettor’s choice is either the Player or the Banker, the odds never allow the bettor the same advantage as the casino. Playing the Don’t Pass in a craps game is not playing with the “House”. The casino has an advantage over this bet close to the same percent as a Pass Line bet. The odds favoring the casino for the Don’t Pass bet are always argued by some, just like religion and politics. It is boring really. The main thing to understand is either way you bet, the odds of you losing are close enough so as to assure that the lights in the casino will keep brightly lit. For the record, the advantage over the Pass Line bet to is 1.41% and for the Don’t Pass bet it is 1.36%.

Perhaps one attraction for playing the Pass Line compared to the Don’t Pass Line has to do with the need for patience when playing the Don’t. Also, the Pass Line offers more excitement with more betting options. I call it “Action Jackson”, a player betting on the edge, who is engaged in the game for every roll. Where as playing the Don’t is like watching paint dry, a grind play, winning once usually, per shooter. Meanwhile, a Pass Line player, can be like a kid in a candy store, picking several ways to bet. The problem with the Pass Line and multiple bets is the exposure to the seven. Probability predicts a seven will result once in every six rolls. That is, for random dice rolls.

What about the players who have made a commitment to develop the skill of dice setting? Can they pluck desired numbers by using a skill? Can setting dice in a special arrangement produce desired outcomes? Can a dice setter manipulate or influence an outcome by skewing random results that favor a Don’t Pass player? Sure! Why not?

Above all, a short coming of this concept is that the player has to be the shooter. Having to be the shooter, the player must be confident with their skill of dice manipulation. This means the shooter has to be able to recognize how their dice are reacting and make any necessary modifications. This statement goes to the extreme of dice manipulation and although there is a large population of dice setters playing the game, few really understand the finer points of the skill required to adjust sets and the toss, in order to keep the dice out of probability. Last, in order to not become bored with the waiting game, the player has to position themselves in a game with very few players in order to have more turns with the dice. The ideal situation would be an empty table, one player, you!

Let’s get to it. What does the game look like for the dice manipulator playing the Don’t Pass? The short scenario would be to shoot live craps on the come out on a roll. Following that would be to come out on 4 or 10, and then seven out on the second roll. That’s it!

Shooting for live craps the set to use is cross sixes, left die axis 4/3 and right die axis 2/5. When set, you would have cross 6/6 on top, looking at 2/3 toward you and 5/4 on the front faces. Assuming the dice stay on axis; you are only exposed to two sevens, 1/6 and 6/1. The remaining fourteen combinations are 6/6, 1/1, 2/3, 5/4, 6/3, 2/1, 5/6, 1/4, 2/4, 5/3, 6/4, 2/6, 5/1, 1/3. However, the possible resulting outcomes are not as good as one might think when playing the Don’t.

On the come out roll 6/6 is a push for the Don’t Pass. Only the 2 craps and 3 craps are live craps rolls on the come out for a Don’t Pass bet. Since 5/6, Yo-11 opposes the craps number 3, and since the eleven is a live roll for the Don’t Pass to lose, it it diminishes any perceived advantage for a craps roll of 3. Pushing craps 12 and canceling the 3 craps, with the eleven, we are left with a one in 36 shot  to roll craps 2, (1/1). Using this set on axis effectively for  natural winners on the come out provides 1:8 to win or 12.5% and 3:16 or 18.75% to lose. Remember our friend “the seven” there are two of them (1/6, 6/1). Can you see how the casino always manages to keep their edge?

The majority of wins for the Pass Line result from natural winners on the Come Out roll 7 or 11. Once a point is establish, the odds go to about 60% against the point to repeat. In plain language, when playing the Don’t Pass, your advantage occurs once a point has been established. Once behind a point, any Don’t Pass or Don’t Come bet becomes the odds on favorite to win.

Examine now the second part of our scenario. Let’s try to set a point of 4 or 10 or at least outside number, 5 or 9. The set to use on the Come Out roll is the 2-V with fours and tens all around. Using this set and assuming the dice stay on axis, you have two sevens to contend with, 5/2 and 2/5. The rest of the fourteen numbers are 2-fours, 2-tens, 2-eights, 2-sixes, 2-nines, 2-fives, 1-three, 1-Yo Eleven.

With the 2-V set, you have 12 out 16 combinations which can result in a box number. Of the twelve numbers, eight are outside numbers. Assuming your dice stay on axis and assuming you miss the sevens and the Yo eleven, your resulting roll will either be a winner ace/deuce – 3 craps, or you will be behind a box number and favored to win.

Behind the 4 or 10 you odds of winning are 2:1. Behind the 5 or 9 your odds of winning are 3:2. Behind the 6 or 8 your odds of winning are 6:5.

Once we are behind a box number with a point established, the next step is to set for sevens. Roll a seven before the point and we win with a seven-out. The seven set to use would depend on the point.

If the point is a 4 or 10, use a sevens set with 5/2 – 5/2 axis.

If the point is a 5 or 9, use a sevens set with 4/3 – 4/3 axis.

If the point is 6 or 8, use either of the above sets for sevens.

This is theoretical and doable depending on the shooter’s skill tossing on axis dice. In addition, the shooter must recognize how the dice are reacting and make any needed modifications to the set and or the toss according to the results.

I am not going into betting strategies here. My purpose is addressing a subscriber’s question about how setting dice and shooting from the Don’t could be a strategy. In short, you can play flat or lay odds and of course add a progression when you win or a modified Martingale when you lose. It really depends on the player’s bankroll and their tolerance to risk. It also involves how the game is trending. a.k.a., the energy factor.

It is easier to find a cold losing table and bet the Don’t than to find a “working table” to bet the Pass Line. If a player is confident in their skill with manipulating dice consistently, then shooting from the Don’t could produce consistent results.

In closing, as a Don’t Pass bettor, recognize that the game will not last long. Losers tend to quite the game and you are left standing alone. Your objective should be to accept modest wins. It is imperative that when shooting from the Don’t that you do not fall victim of your own cleverness. This is a game of chance and anything can and will happen. Caution is advised when shooting from the Don’t. Be alert for the unexpected. Don’t be caught out, rolling a nice hand and falling on your own sword.

Copyright © 2009 Michael Vernon