Playing 4 Keeps™
 A Gaming News Letter For Winners
January/March 2000
Volume 2 Issue 1
Copyright Michael Vernon

THE WALL:

Energy expresses information that can be perceived in every situation. It is possible for a player to benefit, perhaps even to have an edge, using this information in casino games.

The “wall” is a phenomenon that occurs in both in both Craps and Blackjack. Hitting the wall is an energy experience. You can train yourself to recognize when you have hit the wall. Doing so may save your bankroll. When hitting the wall, it seems that you are waiting for something to happen and you feel trapped or stuck in the game. After playing for a while, the game stalls. Financially, the game is going nowhere. You will notice that you are not losing and you are not winning. It is a limbo-like feeling. There are several ways to determine that you have hit the wall. Here are three examples. 1. The bankroll is even, no profit no loss. 2. The bankroll is down a bit say minus four to six units. 3. The bankroll is up a bit say plus four to six units. (one unit equals your minimum bet)

Say that you are a $5 player. You have won eight units or $40. The $40 level seems to be a barrier. You are unable to go beyond an eight unit profit. At the $40 barrier the game stalls and you lose four to six units. You climb back to a profit of $40 only to experience another loss, and so it goes. It is back and forth when you are at the wall.

The same experience can happen when losing. You are down, say, eight units. Eight units becomes the bottom barrier. You claw your way back four to six units and backslide back to the eight unit loss. Again, up, down, it is a stall at the wall.

From my many hours of experience, the smartest, simplest and most profitable thing to do is to leave the game upon hitting the wall. The energy evident for producing profit is gone. I call it “win one, lose one, push”. No matter how you adjust your play, nothing works. Only the casino makes money at this point. I know of no magic that will change or perk up the stale energy. I have tried to bring up the energy. Sticking pins in a boxman-voodoo-doll is a sure way of being barred.

Leaving seems like simple advice, yet the tendency is for the player is to engage the intellect. The player thinks that the doldrums cannot go on forever. Intellect talks the player into staying with the game. Perhaps the player thinks, “This game has to got to break away eventually. What the heck, I have only been here forty-five minutes? I have to show something for my time. After all, I’m not losing, I can make this table pay.” The intellect provides logical explanations to keep playing but the energy tells a different story.

I suggest playing sensitive to the energy or the “vibs” at the table. Follow the action closely. Be present and in the moment. Know what is going on all of the time. Keep yourself “switched on”, looking for a reason or signal to leave the game. Positive reasons to stay with a game are obvious enough.

More times than not, after hitting the wall, the game tends to break up and go down hill. Too often, when this shift occurs, it happens very rapidly. The player, asleep at the wheel and caught with their pants down, usually leaves the game that way, “down”.

The message to bail out is a feeling experience. It is a feeling of being in a stalled state of no progress, going nowhere. I was raised Catholic. That feeling of Limbo that Sister Mary Fatima always scared me with, comes to mind.

When you are in touch with the energy, you will experience a “knowing”. You can perceive the energy and know what kind of game you are playing by how it feels. It feels comfortable or it feels uncomfortable. Perceiving energy is real. When it is a negative feeling, ask yourself “why am I not feeling good about this experience”. Look down at your chips and you will see your answer.

You experience this energy feeling all the time in your normal daily life. It is that little voice. The one you always promise to listen to next time… “if only I had listened to myself”. Working with energy requires discipline, quieting the mind and subjugating the ego and the emotions. Perceiving energy is a subtle technique that intellect, ego and emotion easily overpower. You have to ask them to step aside while you notice your perceptions and feelings. It takes practice, but it is something everyone is capable of achieving.

Once the intellect or ego engages, it takes charge of the player and the player’s game. The player is not paying attention to messages that can be perceived from the energy at the table. Being aware of the subtle messages and their meaning is what I refer to as “reading the energy”. Most players follow their emotions not the energy. The ego whispers, “something good should happen because… because I want it to, because it is due, because I am one heck of a player, this stagnate game can not go on forever, I want to win.”  The player’s perspective is not on the action. Reading the energy is traded for an emotional perspective. A longing and yearning for the win, at any cost, is negative emotion. Desperately wishing that something good will happen is a sure sign that you do not believe or feel that it will happen. Negative emotion is like a magnet. It draws negativity. Detachment from ego, emotion and intellect requires strong will and discipline.

Without discipline, lulled into a kind of dream-state wishing for future success with the absence of anything happening, the player goes on autopilot. The mundane rhythm of the game gets boring and play becomes rote behavior. Place the bet, drag back the win or replace the bet after a loss. It is a bit like having that song that you hate playing in your head and you can not stop humming it. Your are in a trance. You have hit the wall.

The stage is set, ready for the fall. Without warning, the wind turns cold and in a matter of minutes, losing hand follows losing hand. The chase is on. Ego is not going to accept a loss. After playing “even” for an hour and a half, an entire betting stake can be wiped out boom, boom, in minutes.

Well what happened? You see, back at the wall, the player received a quick warning from the energy, or lack of energy. Ego or intellect took the helm, and “damn the torpedoes” it sunk the ship. “Hitting the wall” is a signal. It is a wake up call to pay extra attention to your game.

Here are a few more ways to work with reading table energy. Be in the present moment. Ask what is going on here? What do I see? What do I know? How do I feel about it? Be aware of what is going on with the game and especially with your self. Notice your breathing. Pay attention to your body. Listen to your heart. Are you comfortable? Are you experiencing any pain in your feet or legs? Do you have a headache or backache? Usually, signs of discomfort are not apparent when you are having fun. If you catch yourself drifting from present awareness something is causing that distraction. It is not important to identify the distraction. It is important to recognize that you are not “in” the game. Be honest with yourself and have the discipline to admit when your intention is weak. It is like boxer in the ring not protecting himself. A knockout is inevitable. Reading the subtle signs of energy in the game is a way of protecting yourself. It takes a bit of practice and like anything, the more you practice the more skilled you will become.

No matter if you are winning or losing look for the rhythm in your game expressed by the energy. When the rhythm changes, take action. Usually it is a signal that it is time to leave the game. Relax, casinos never shut. Play it smart, take a break then find a game with potential, a game with winning energy. It is never wrong to exit a game. Play from the heart, not from the head.

TRIMMING THE HEDGE:

What is a Hedge bet?  A hedge bet is a bet that almost cancels an opposing bet. Two contrary bets are made, if one wins, the other bet loses or eventually will loses. With either outcome, a small profit is made. It is a bet that cannot lose. Yeah, right and if you believe that…

There is not a hedge bet for Blackjack. I have one for Roulette, but it requires a good book and a sack of dough. I don’t find Roulette all that entertaining.

It is the craps table where the hedge better will be found. There are numerous ways to hedge a bet at the craps table. You can actually make them up for yourself. I am going to share a couple along with my views on hedge betting. Before I get into it, I will say that I tried hedging once. I did win and dollar or two and caught a lot of grief from the table crew.

Surgeon General’s Warning: The use of hedge bets may be hazardous to your bankroll. I do not indorse hedge bets. Players are always looking for the sure thing, the easy way out. Hedge betting will do this for your bankroll. It is your money’s “easy way out” from your pocket.

The Don’t, Place Hedge Bet: (and I agree)

Make a Don’t Pass bet for $10. After the point is established, you place bet the six and eight for $6 each. After the first win on either the six or eight you collect $7. Now, no matter what, you are guaranteed a net win of $5. (You have in actions a total of $22, $10 on the Don’t and $12 in place bets.) If the seven rolls, you win the $10 Don’t bet, lose the $12 place bets and picked up $7 from one place bet win. 10-12+7=$5

If the hand continues and you have another winning six or eight, you are to make a place bet on the five for $5 and take another $2 profit. If the hand continues and you have another winning six or eight or five, you are to make a place bet on the nine for $5 and take another $2 profit. Now, you would have a guaranteed profit of $9.

OK, so that sounds pretty good, a guaranteed profit of $9 and having the inside numbers covered, this could go to the moon, maybe. But wait a minute, this sounds too good to be true and you know the cliché, if it does then it probably is.

Let’s have a complete view of this play.

1. The first thing that has to happen when making this “guaranteed hedge bet that can’t lose” is you must establish the Don’t Pass bet. You must get passed the “Evil One” and his assistant, “Yo” a.k.a., the seven and eleven. On the come out roll, the odds of losing the Don’t bet are 1/ 4.5 or 22.2222% of total occurrences. It is no guarantee that you will always get the Don’t Pass bet up.
2. Once the $10 Don’t Pass bet is established, a winning six or eight is needed just to show the $5 profit. Now, it is just the “Evil One” the seven, to cause some worry. Or is it? Should the seven roll before the six or eight, this play loses $2. But what if the point is made before a six or eight? Yet another way this guaranteed bet can lose. The $10 Don’t Pass bet falls leaving the six and eight placed bet unprotected “hedging” out to dry.
3. Now what to do with the stranded six and eight. The author of this system never addressed this scenario. I would advise the only prudent thing to do would be to make another Don’t Pass bet or take down the place bets and the hedge results in a $10 loss.
4. By making another Don’t Pass bet the hedge play starts anew with all the same probabilities, math and risk.
5. The down side to this play is losing $10 if a natural rolls against the Don’t Pass bet or $2 should the seven show before either six or eight rolls.
6. If the Don’t Pass bet survives and a six or eight rolls, the profit is $5, should winning rolls continue, the profit would accumulate as: $5, $2, $2, and then $7 for any of the place bets rolled, 5-6-8-9. Eventually the hand will seven out and $10 can be added to the total profit won.
7. Craps on the come out makes us a quick $10, but don’t count on this outcome to off set the seven and eleven.

Yes, this hedge play can and probably makes a modest profit on average. However, keep in mind that there are three ways for the Don’t Pass bet to lose money before the play may show a profit. Again, do not have much hope for the two crap rolls that will be a natural winner on the come out roll. Do this math on this play and you will see it.

A few repeating naturals, seven/eleven, coupled with passing dice, will put this Hedge in a hole and catching up with $5 and $2 wins looks tough to me. I don’t see how serious money can be won before falling asleep when making this Hedge play. If you like playing for denture money, give it a go and let me know.

Porfavor  Don’t Hedge Bet: (I mean it.) If you do not Habla Spanish, call me

Make a $25 Don’t Pass bet, (make the sign of the cross quick like a place kicker does in football). After you are behind the point, place bet the same number. If you are behind the six or eight, place bet for $24. If you are behind the five or nine, place bet for $20. If you are behind the four or the ten, place bet for $15.

If you get passed the seven and eleven on the come out roll you will make a few bucks. If you get pasted on the front end, it’s a catch up game, pennies chasing dollars.

OK, here comes the nice part, maybe. I am not thrilled by this play, but I kind of like it for ulterior motives. The author of this play makes this additional point. If you want to be a rated played but feel uncomfortable or are unable to play with the required bankroll, you can risk this hedge bet playing quarters. A twenty-five dollar minimum bet is required in the nicer casinos to be rated and considered for comps. However, there is no free lunch. A hand full of lost Don’t bets would get you a room in the best hotel in Las Vegas. Another thing to consider is, the pit boss may not be impressed with your “Mickey Mouse” action anyway.

(Playing 4 Keeps students could add this on top of the P4K system. Of course a separate bankroll is required. You would need $200 just to have four bets. I guess if it did not go south on you, you could hang with it for a while. It is up to you. You know my motto: “The casino is paying anyway, get it off the tables”) 

I will address rating cards and comps in a later issue. Simply to state here, Las Vegas is the hottest destination in the world. Unless you plan your trip for off-season, which almost does not exist, you will find higher room rates and perhaps full hotels. Having a rating card may get you in your favorite House and will usually get you bang down rates or even free rooms, depending on your action.

In closing this topic of Hedging Craps bets, there are many different Hedge plays. You can invent some of your own. Most of them depend on a certain scenario to unfold. If all the rolls to go the way they do on paper, you make a consistent, though small profit.

I believe, one way or another, a Hedge bet has serious flaws. It is just a matter of close examination to discover them. For most of them, a cool streak or even sporadic rolls against the hedge bet becomes insurmountable. It is not likely, that you will overcome the loss, before you get bored with the various systems for hedging plays.

I really do not like the idea of betting a lot to win a little. I prefer just the opposite.

Finally, I have not seen money management or bankroll protection linked to a hedge play. Running out of bankroll does not count as a stop loss. For new readers, money management is most important, second only to complete knowledge of the game you are playing.

It’s a game, play for the fun. Play 4 Keeps!

See you at the tables,
Michael Vernon

Thanks to “Mike the Knife” for sharing the math and for proof reading this issue!

DO YOU KNOW?

In the last issue of Playing 4 Keeps I asked what Las Vegas meant. The answer is the meadows. If you have been to Las Vegas, you next question might be, “where in the desert are these meadows”?

Answer: “I don’t know Margo” And that line is from what Chevy Chase movie? I know the movie, I don’t know where the meadows are.

OK, some of you said that last issue’s question was too easy. Here is a toughie just for Lent. Who is the patron Saint of Gamblers? No fair asking a priest, they might know. I use to see priests once in while at the dog track when I was a kid. Oops, sorry father.

1. San Geranimo
2. Leandor
3. Cayetano
4. San Fernando
5. San Casiniano
6. Payumtomoochi

What is the difference from praying in church and praying is a casino? When praying in the casino, we really mean it.

YOUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED:

Q:  How much bankroll do I need?

A:  You did not ask for which game, but my answer is the same for all games. You need enough bankroll to give your betting stake a fighting chance. If we won every bet we would only need the one bet to get us going. Craps and Blackjack are my games, here you go.

The bankroll I recommend for Craps is ten times a Pass Line bet with double odds. I recommend this formula for each additional play that you make, ten times the minimum bet played. If you make a Come bet, you should have ten times the Come bet plus double odds to sustain this betting action. If you like to Place bet the six and eight, you will need two times ten, times the minimum bet. Say, for example, that you like to Place bet the six and eight for $12 each. The required bankroll would be $240. 2x10x$12= $240

For Blackjack, it depends on a few factors. If you are very good at basic strategy but do not count cards, twenty units will be enough for you to enjoy a game, win or lose. This amount should keep you at the table as long as you like with a built in stop loss. There is no reason to lose more than twenty units when playing basic strategy with a flat bet. That is because the expected win could be only six to eight units.

If you can case the deck, thirty units are advised. With thirty units you give yourself enough ammo to sustain your game should you have a cool run and take a hit with an increased bet or two, or if you have your doubles or splits go south.

If you play expert basic strategy and can count a deck down, buying in for forty or fifty units, actually increases your probability of winning. (one unit is your base bet; $5, $10 $25,)

Q:  Is there really a mathematical way to beat the game of craps?

A:  Yes, I say there is! With each roll of the dice, the mathematical probability is always the same. The dice do not know what has rolled previously. It is a matter of odds and probability. Each number 2-12 has an expectancy of being rolled, which can be expressed in odds. Learn the odds.

Example: Eight the hard way, 4/4 can only be rolled one way. Thus there is one chance out of 36 for the hard Eight to roll. One die has six sides, six numbers, 6×6=36.

There are a total of five combinations for rolling an eight, five chances out of 36 for an eight to roll. Or, expressed in odds, one out of 7.2 chances for any combination of eight to be rolled.

There are six ways a seven can roll. The odds of rolling a seven is one out of six rolls.

The odds for the eight verses the seven are six to five against the eight.

The pay-off for all bets in a dice game is expressed in odds. The odds are based on the probability of the winning number’s odds of rolling against the odds of the losing number rolling. Even though some of the bets have a pay-off that initially look appealing, they are in fact sucker bets that will separate the player making these bets from their money. This, in addition to the fact, that the casino does not offer true odds on the bets. In this way the casino insures a profit from most of the players.

In Playing 4 Keeps, I teach plays having the least odds against them. In addition, solid money management allows the player to take advantage of opportunities that occur in the game. No matter how small or how big the opportunity, always seize the moment.

Playing 4 Keeps is based in the math of the game, plays having the least odds against them, minimum risk, for maximum results. Do the math, play by the numbers and Play 4 Keeps.

Thanks for your Questions.

Schedule for the next Playing 4 Keeps workshops

Do’s and Don’ts of Dice – March 10-12

Blackjack for Winners – March 17-19

Location: Taos, New Mexico. Class size limited to six students.

Contact me to register and for complete details.

Luck has nothing to do with it – Playing 4 Keeps!

Purpose Statement:

My purpose for teaching Playing 4 Keeps is; to teach people a proven system for winning, to educate the player, so they can enjoy the game. For the player to have confidence, consistency and control in their game. Most importantly, for the player to benefit from the workshop with an experience that is applicable to their every day life.

Michael Vernon

Playing 4 Keeps news letter is written by Michael Vernon and intended to be informational and entertaining. In no way should the information be considered as a means of supplementing or replacing income. Casino games are just that, games to be enjoyed. It is Michael’s intention to provide this information so that the reader may play the games with more enjoyment. Copyright January, 2000

Michael Vernon
Playing 4 Keeps™ Seminars
Professor@playing4keeps.com
Phone 505-751-9381
https://playing4keeps.com/